Another Seat Prediction: Abacus Data – #wrp 71, #PC 12, #ABNDP and #ABLIB 2 #abvote
April 20, 2012 Leave a comment
A couple of things here. First, I’m dealing with a bout of laryngitis, otherwise I’d be doing this as a video blog. I switched formats for that purpose, and it’s quite frustrating to be relegated back to text on account of The Common Cold deciding to attack my voice box.
Oh well. The show, as they say, must go on. I’ll just type this out rather than do it as a video. Hopefully, over the next few days, my voice will return to normal and I can get back to ranting and raving in front of my trusty Sony HD Camcorder… and $14 teleprompter.
Yes. I made a teleprompter.
Maybe I’ll show you how I did it one day.
In any event, I’m writing this because Abacus (and later on, Campaign Research) released a couple of polls detailing more support numbers for the various parties throughout Alberta.
Now, let me be clear, I am dubious about what I’m about to share. This close to election day, I am really hoping for some better regional breakdowns. Abacus Data offers three regions: Edmonton, Calgary, and The Rest of Alberta.
Forum Research, on the other hand, breaks the numbers down a lot better: Northern, Central, Southern, Alberta, Edmonton, and Calgary. Much more detail to work with. Northern Alberta seems to have more PC support, while Southern Alberta is entrenched with Wildrose. Edmonton is strong for the PCs, though the tight 4-way fight means all kinds of things could happen.
Calgary is solidly Wildrose.
So, I’m going to share these numbers with you, but I want you to take them as somewhat out of whack:
Liberal, NDP: 2 Each
To get these numbers, I ran a prediction against the 2008 riding configuration, then visually overlaid the 2012 ridings, and made a “best guess” as to which way the new ridings would go. Calgary and rural alberta were easy – clean Wildrose sweep with this poll, but Edmonton was more tricky.
So, I’m going to adjust my Wildrose numbers down a bit and the PC numbers up:
NDP/Liberal: 2 each
Either way, Wildrose landslide, and Alison Redford (after saying she was proud of the video, “I Never Thought I’d Vote PC”, deservedly so) will likely go down in history as the Worst. Premier. Ever.